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HONG KONG

Hong Kong and the Global Economic Outlook 2019 

From London to New York, some of the world's biggest stock indices are in bear markets, having fallen more than 20% from a recent high. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index dropped 13.4%. Coupled with the impending trade war between the US and China, and the fall in property prices, there is much negativity around the year ahead. But it is not necessarily all doom and gloom for Hong Kong – in fact, many economists are positive about the year 2019. This article seeks to unpick the facts, and dispel the myths around the future of the economy and how it affects Hong Kong.

 

It is a fact that global growth is slowing down, but only very gradually. Growth peaked in the third quarter of 2017, and it is predicted that there will be weak growth in Q1 2019 due in part to the capital markets slowdown last year, but the fact remains that the economy is growing – there is no recession in sight.

 

That great predictor of economic turmoil, the strength of the labour market, also backs up this view. In the United States, the unemployment rate is at its lowest since 1969; Germany is operating at its lowest rate in a decade, while in Hong Kong, rates are the lowest they have ever been at just 2.8%.

 

There is an argument that it is the political environment that is driving the economic turmoil, rather than the underlying economy itself being in trouble. Just look at inflation rates – the US (which is a leading predictor across the world) is holding steady at 1.9%, with no sign of deflation. Essentially, economists believe that the markets are pricing for more negativity than is deserved, the key factor being political uncertainty: worries about a hard Brexit, worries about deflation in the US, an uncertain outcome in the US-China trade war… but the underlying economic data is solid.

 

What further evidence is there for this optimism?

 

Firstly, most countries in Asia are net exporters, shipping far more goods to other countries than they take in. If we look at the import growth in Europe, the United States and Japan, their import volume has been growing, and actually steadily increasing since 2012.

 

Secondly, despite the political uncertainty, we are not yet seeing any obvious damage from the US-China trade war. A truce has just been declared, and it is expected that this will hold until at least the end of February, and actually will in all likelihood continue for a further 6-12 months. The impact on trade with Hong Kong is actually only approximately 0.1% - a mere drop in the ocean.

 

Thirdly, whilst the China economic growth has slowed, this is probably a good thing. It is true that car sales have collapsed, but this is due to a deliberate policy change to curb the amount of credit; all other retail sales continue to grow and appear healthy. Further, China has just announced tax cuts for small businesses, helping them save over US$30 billion per year to boost jobs and the economy.

 

Lastly, the Hong Kong job market, as mentioned above remains healthy – in fact, the government has just announced an increase in the minimum wage with effect from 1st May 2019 – a very sizeable 8.7% rise. Through various government initiatives, certain sectors in Hong Kong are booming: Hong Kong is positioning itself as a fintech hub, and the activity in startups around Cyberport and Sheung Wan provide demonstrable evidence of the confidence businesses have in the future of Hong Kong.

 

While uncertainty abounds, and the markets are pricing for this uncertainty, it is important to remember that there has been a steady, if slowed growth in the markets, and businesses should not be worried about the future prospects of the Hong Kong economy this year.

New @Gemini Personnel

From left to right: Ben Brustis, Elena Holmvall, Jon Abel and Catherine Kwok

A new year for Gemini, and some new faces to boost our presence and make us better able to serve our clients. The Hong Kong office welcomed a new Managing Director, Jon Abel, a former Senior Manager in a globally operating Management Consulting firm, who has worked with clients from a broad range of industries including Pharmaceuticals, transport, banking, insurance and professional service. We also would like to welcome Catherine Kwok, an experienced consultant who brings a deep understanding of the IT and Telecoms industries and will boost our abilities to serve our clients in these sectors. Ben Brustis will provide executive level placements to the luxury sector, with his in-depth background providing market research and market analysis and insight to a range of luxury clients. Last but not least, we would like to introduce Elena Holmvall, who looks after insurance and a number of professional services sub-sectors – Elena has a broad background working across different continents and will bring superb relationship management and true partnering skills to our clients.

Top 5 Candidates in Hong Kong

IT Project Manager

 

Nationality: Hong Kong                Availability: Immediately

Based: Hong Kong

Languages: Native Cantonese and English

Skills:

- Over 15 years of solid experience gained in managing large-scale complex IT projects in both NGOs as well as commercial organizations

- B.Sc. (Honours) in Information Systems, PMP and PRINCE2 qualified

- Substantial experience in IT management, system development, infrastructure implementation, e-commerce and IT security control

 

For more information about this candidate, please contact varsham@gemini.com.hk.

Accounting Manager 

 

Nationality: Hong Kong                   Availability: Immediately

Based: Hong Kong

Languages: Native Cantonese, Mandarin and fluent English

Skills:

- 17 years of accounting experience and 10 years' experience in working for a US listed company

- 6 years' experience in an IT company and 2 years in Connectors and Sensors trading

- This candidate acquired excellent analysis, management reporting & consolidation account skills. Familiar with using SAP system

 

For more information about this candidate, please contact monlyc@gemini.com.hk.

Sales & Marketing Manager

 

Nationality: Hong Kong       Availability: Immediately

Based: Hong Kong

Languages: Native Cantonese, Mandarin and fluent English

Skills: 

- More than 10 years' sales and marketing experience in the retail industry (beauty & healthcare products)

- Extensive experience in brand building, new product launches, retail operations, wholesale business, key account development, new shop openings, and event organisation

- Managed Sales Team to achieve sales target, with strong Hong Kong market exposure

 
For more information about this candidate, please contact laurisy@gemini.com.hk.

Senior Manager (4PL, Logistics Solutions & Airfreight)

 

Nationality: Hong Kong                     Availability: Two months' notice     

Based: Hong Kong

Languages: Native Cantonese, Mandarin and English

Skills:

- Over 10 years' logistics & airfreight experience in sizeable Logistics & Freight forwarding industry

- 5 years at Senior Management level

- Experience with management of over 150 staff in Logistics & Airfreight teams

 

For more information about this candidate, please contact priscillac@gemini.com.hk.

Sales Manager (Electronics)

 

Nationality: Hong Kong                        Availability: Immediately  

Based: Hong Kong

Languages: Native Cantonese, Mandarin and English

Skills:

- Over 10 years of experience in serving key account customers, doing business development and marketing, gained in Japan-based MNC trading companies

- Hands-on experience in dealing with both suppliers and customers

- Good understanding of Japanese organisational operations and Japanese clients

 

For more information about this candidate, please contact kittys@gemini.com.hk.

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